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Belief Elicitation : A Horse Race among Truth Serums

Trautmann, Stefan T.; Kuilen, Gijs van de - Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research - 2011

In survey studies, probabilistic expectations about uncertain events are typically elicited by asking respondents for their introspective beliefs. If more complex procedures are feasible, beliefs can be elicited by incentive compatible revealed preference mechanisms (“truth serums”). Various...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011091135

Ambiguity and Volatility : Asset Pricing Implications

Pataracchia, B. - Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research - 2011

investor with smooth ambiguity averse preferences [Klibano¤, Marinacci and Mukerji, Econometrica (2005)] and provides a … comparative analysis of risk aversion and ambiguity aversion. The perception of ambiguity is described by a hidden Markovian … consumption growth process. The hidden states di¤er both for the mean and the volatility. We show that the ambiguity …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011090768

Comonotonic Book-Making with Nonadditive Probabilities

Diecidue, E.; Wakker, P.P. - Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research - 2000

associated outcomes, and allows for nonadditive probabilities.Typical features of rank-dependence, hedging, ambiguity aversion …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011091614

Individual perceptions of local crime risk

Salm, Martin; Vollaard, B.A. - Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research - 2014

We provide evidence that perceptions of crime risk are severely biased for many years after a move to a new neighborhood. Based on four successive waves of a large crime survey, matched with administrative records on household relocations, we find that the longer an individual lives in a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011096862

Selection and Mode Effects in Risk Preference Elicitation Experiments

van soest, arthur; von Gaudecker, H.M.; Wengstrom, E. - Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research - 2008

We combine data from a risk preference elicitation experiment conducted on a representative sample via the Internet with laboratory data on student subjects for the same experiment in order to investigate effects of implementation mode and of subject pool selection. We find that the frequency of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011090335

Probabilistic insurance

Wakker, P.P.; Thaler, R.H.; Tversky, A. - Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research - 1997

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011090393

Testing for Mean-Coherent Regular Risk Spanning

Melenberg, Bertrand; Polbennikov, S.Y. - Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research - 2005

Coherent risk measures have received considerable attention in the recent literature.Coherent regular risk measures form an important subclass: they are empirically identifiable, and, when combined with mean return, they are consistent with second order stochastic dominance.As a consequence,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011090450

Real Options in an Aymmetric Duopoly : Who Benefits from your Competitive Disadvantage

Kort, Peter; Pawlina, G. - Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research - 2001

This paper considers the impact of investment cost asymmetry on the value and optimal real option exercise strategies of firms under imperfect competition.Both firms have an opportunity to invest in a project enhancing (ceteris paribus) the profit now.We show that three types of equilibria exist...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011090519

Heterogeneity in Risky Choice Behavior in a Broad Population

van soest, arthur; von Gaudecker, H.M.; Wengstrom, E. - Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research - 2009

We analyse risk preferences using an experiment with real incentives in a representative sample of 1,422 Dutch respondents. Our econometric model incorporates four structural parameters that vary with observed and unobserved characteristics: Utility curvature, loss aversion, preferences towards...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011090573

The Gambler's Fallacy and Gender

Suetens, Sigrid; Tyran, J.R. - Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research - 2011

The “gambler’s fallacy” is the false belief that a random event is less likely to occur if the event has occurred recently. Such beliefs are false if the onset of events is in fact independent of previous events. We study gender differences in the gambler’s fallacy using data from the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011090580