"Hyperbolic discount functions are characterized by a relatively high discount rate over short horizons and a relatively low discount rate over long horizons" (Laibson 1997).We suggest two cognitive procedures where individuals perceive future utility as decreasing at a decreasing rate as a...

Cognitive dissonance causes people to rationalize actions that differ from their own preferences.Conformity, on the other hand, causes people to change their behavior as a result of pressure from others.This paper investigates the consequences of preference dynamic that occur when individuals...

This tutorial discusses what-if analysis and optimization of System Dynamics models. These problems are solved, using the statistical techniques of regression analysis and design of experiments (DOE). These issues are illustrated by applying the statistical techniques to a System Dynamics model...

For decision makers the variability in the net present value (NPV) of an investment project is an indication of the project's risk. So-called risk analysis is one way to estimate this variability. However, risk analysis requires knowledge about the stochastic character of the inputs. For large,...

Sensitivity analysis may serve validation, optimization, and risk analysis of simulation models.This review surveys classic and modern designs for experiments with simulation models.Classic designs were developed for real, non-simulated systems in agriculture, engineering, etc.These designs...

We experimentally investigate the development of voluntary transfers in an overlapping generations environment. By varying the information conditions of the game, we study whether the development of transfers is related to the possibility of future generations to monitor and reciprocate...