Showing 1 - 10 of 10
This paper employs the unrestricted extended constant conditional correlation GARCH specification proposed in Conrad and Karanasos (2008) to examine the intertemporal relationship between the uncertainties of inflation and output growth in the US. We find that inflation uncertainty effects...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011422179
This paper employs an augmented version of the UECCC GARCH specification proposed in Conrad and Karanasos (2010) which allows for lagged in-mean effects, level effects as well as asymmetries in the conditional variances. In this unified framework we examine the twelve potential intertemporal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011422216
This paper explicitly models strategic interaction between two independent national fiscal authorities and a single central bank in a simple New Keynesian model of a monetary union. Monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Coordination of fiscal policies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325141
This paper studies the long-run effect of the 2002 changeover on restaurant prices in Germany. German restaurant prices increased significantly when the euro was introduced as a new currency but rather than returning to their re-changeover trend, restaurant prices appear to have stabilized on a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011422227
In a simple New Keynesian model, we derive a closed form solution for the inflation-gap persistence parameter as a function of the policy weights in the central bank’s Taylor rule. By estimating the time-varying weights that the FED attaches to inflation and the output gap, we show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011422228
Using time-varying BVARs, we find that oil price increases caused by oil supply shocks did not affect food commodity prices before the start of the millennium, but had positive spillover effects in more recent periods. Likewise, shortfalls in global food commodity supply - resulting from bad...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012141452
We use a very general bivariate GARCH-M model and monthly data on EU countries covering the 1962-2003 period to test for the impact of real (output growth) and nominal (inflation) macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Our evidence supports a number of important conclusions....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005292572
We use over two hundred years of US inflation data to examine the impact of inflation uncertainty on inflation. An analysis of the full period without allowing for various regimes shows no impact of uncertainty on inflation. However, once we distinguish between recessions and non recessions, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009321052
This paper investigates the links between inflation, its uncertainty and economic growth in five ASEAN countries over the period 1980: Q1-2011: Q3. We rely on the Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model to explore the causal relationship among the three variables. The major findings are: (i) inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010729126
We examine the relationship between inflation uncertainty, inflation and growth using annual historical data on industrial countries covering in many cases more than one century. Proxying inflation uncertainty by the conditional variance of inflation shocks, we obtain the following results. (1)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008506468