This paper considers spot variance path estimation from datasets of intraday high frequency asset prices in the presence of diurnal variance patterns, jumps, leverage effects and microstructure noise. We rely on parametric and nonparametric methods. The estimated spot variance path can be used...

The strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator in observation-driven models usually requires the study of the model both as a filter for the time-varying parameter and as a data generating process (DGP) for observed data. The probabilistic properties of the...

We study the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator for a class of time series models driven by the score function of the predictive likelihood. This class of nonlinear dynamic models includes both new and existing observation driven time series models....

The paper derives a Multivariate Asymmetric Long Memory conditional volatility model with Exogenous Variables (X), or the MALMX model, with dynamic conditional correlations, appropriate regularity conditions, and associated asymptotic theory. This enables checking of internal consistency and...

The paper develops a novel realized matrix-exponential stochastic volatility model of multivariate returns and realized covariances that incorporates asymmetry and long memory (hereafter the RMESV-ALM model). The matrix exponential transformation guarantees the positivedefiniteness of the...

In this paper, we use a modified concept of Granger-(non)causality in reconsidering the negative correlation between stock returns and inflation known in the literature as stock return-inflation puzzle. Based on the quarterly data for Germany including stock returns, inflation rates and growth...

A test for serial independence is proposed which is related to the BDS test but focuses on tail event probabilities rather than probabilities near the center of the distribution. The motivation behind this approach is to obtain a test more suitable for detecting structure in the tails, such as...

We consider cointegration rank estimation for a p-dimensional Fractional Vector Error Correction Model. We propose a new two-step procedure which allows testing for further long-run equilibrium relations with possibly different persistence levels. The first step consists in estimating the...

In this paper we will be estimating risk-neutral densities (RND) for the largest euro area stock market (the index of which is the German DAX), reporting their statistical properties, and evaluating their forecasting performance. We have applied an innovative test procedure to a new, rich, and...