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Real-Time Estimation of the Output Gap in Japan and its Usefulness for Inflation Forecasting and Policymaking

Kamada, Koichiro - 2004

This paper examines the methods used by the Bank of Japan for the estimation of the output gap. Attention is paid to the real-time estimation problem. After reviewing the evolution of output gap estimation at the Bank, I discuss advantages and disadvantages of the various output gap measures....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295641

Asset Prices in Taylor Rules: Specification, Estimation, and Policy Implications for the ECB

Siklos, Pierre L.; Werner, Thomas; Bohl, Martin T. - 2004

This paper estimates standard and extended Taylor rules for core countries in the euro area, namely France, Germany and Italy, as well as for the ECB. Forward, backward and forecast-based rules are estimated for a variety of samples since the late 1970s. We are particularly interested in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295649

Towards a Joint Characterization of Monetary Policy and the Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Fendel, Ralf - 2004

The paper develops an empirical no-arbitrage Gaussian affine term structure model to explain the dynamics of the German term structure of interest rates from 1979 through 1998. In contrast to most affine term structure models two risk factors that drive the dynamics are linked to observable...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295651

How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data

Gerberding, Christina; Worms, Andreas; Seitz, Franz - 2004

Papers estimating the reaction function of the Bundesbank generally find that its monetary policy from the 1970s to 1998 can well be captured by a standard Taylor rule according to which the central bank responds to the output gap and to deviations of inflation from target, but not to monetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295652

Real-time Data for Norway: Challenges for Monetary Policy

Bernhardsen, Tom; Eitrheim, Øyvind; Jore, Anne Sofie; … - 2004

National accounts data are always revised. Not only recent data, but also figures dating many years back can be revised substantially. This means that there is a danger that an important part of the central bank's information set is flawed for a long period of time. In this paper we present a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295653

Forecast quality and simple instrument rules: a real-time data approach

Glück, Heinz; Schleicher, Stefan P. - 2004

We start from the assertion that a useful monetary policy design should be founded on more realistic assumptions about what policymakers can know at the time when policy decisions have to be made. Since the Taylor rule - if used as an operational device - implies a forward looking behaviour, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295657

Interest rate reaction functions for the euro area Evidence from panel data analysis

Ruth, Karsten - 2004

As of today, estimating interest rate reaction functions for the Euro Area is hampered by the short time span since the conduct of a single monetary policy. In this paper we circumvent the common use of aggregated data before 1999 by estimating interest rate reaction functions based on a panel...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295660

Central Bank accountability and transparency: theory and some evidence

Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W.; Hoeberichts, Marco - 2000

Geldpolitik und die Frage, wer die endgültige Verantwortung für die Geldpolitik trägt. Das Papier zeigt auf, dass die …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295694

Monetary policy transparency, public commentary, and market perceptions about monetary policy in Canada

Siklos, Pierre L. - 2000

Die Einführung von Inflationszielen in Kanada im Jahr 1991 verdeutlichte angeblich das Ziel der Geldpolitik, nämlich … Preisstabilität. Mit der neuen Politik sollte unter anderem die Öffentlichkeit fortan den Erfolg der Geldpolitik leichter daran messen … in der öffentlichen Kommentierung der Geldpolitik seit 1991 fairer beurteilt werden.' Anhand von Kommentaren in den …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295696

The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy

Gerberding, Christina - 2001

The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission's Consumer Survey and from the surveys of professional experts...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295707