The article illustrates how the integration of modern theory of finance and stochastic dynamic macroeconomic analysis provides a deeper understanding of the link between asset prices and consumption. It shows that this approach gives only a partial explanation for recent trends in US...

A new point estimator for the AR(1) coefficient in the linear regression model with arbitrary exogenous regressors and stationary AR(1) disturbances is developed. Its construction parallels that of the median‐unbiased estimator, but uses the mode as a measure of central tendency. The...

In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing forecast models. In addition to the standard...

The European Central Bank (ECB) recently announced its willingness to do whatever is needed to save the euro. This has raised the question whether such a role of the ECB must lead to higher rates of inflation. Under current recessive macroeconomic conditions in the eurozone, the ECB’s...

Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) beginnt 1999 ihre Arbeit. Ihren Auftrag hat sie erhalten, die Mitglieder der Europäischen Währungsunion stehen fest. Dennoch sind einige wesentliche Fragen noch immer offen: Für welche geldpolitische Strategie soll sich die EZB entscheiden und wie kann sie...