A new point estimator for the AR(1) coefficient in the linear regression model with arbitrary exogenous regressors and stationary AR(1) disturbances is developed. Its construction parallels that of the median‐unbiased estimator, but uses the mode as a measure of central tendency. The...

In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing forecast models. In addition to the standard...

We present a non-cooperative model of a family’s time allocation between work and a home-produced public good, and examine whether the income tax should apply to couples or individuals. While tax-induced labor supply distortions lead to overprovision of the public good, spouses’ failure to...

In this paper the direction of the long-run migration incentive in the presence of closed borders and the long-run welfare effects of a regime change from ’autarky’ to ’free permanent migration’ are studied. A difference in birth-country specific fertility rates is treated as the final...

This paper analyses the inflation rate in Germany by means of a common trends model. Starting from an IS-LM model of the open economy, we conduct a cointegration analysis from which we obtain plausible long-run relationships. In the next step, we identify structural shocks with permanent and...