A new point estimator for the AR(1) coefficient in the linear regression model with arbitrary exogenous regressors and stationary AR(1) disturbances is developed. Its construction parallels that of the median‐unbiased estimator, but uses the mode as a measure of central tendency. The...

EEAG’s 2007 Report provides a comprehensive forecast for the European economy for the coming year, with a special section on Eastern European countries. In addition, it addresses several important policy issues, including an in-depth examination of whether the features of the Scandinavian...

In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing forecast models. In addition to the standard...