We embed a lockdown choice in a simplified epidemiological model and derive formulas for the optimal lockdown intensity and duration. The optimal policy re- ects the rate of time preference, epidemiological factors, the hazard rate of vaccine discovery, learning effects in the health care...

We contrast the canonical epidemiological SIR model due to Kermack and McKendrick (1927) with more tractable alternatives that offer similar degrees of "realism" and exibility. We provide results connecting the different models which can be exploited for calibration purposes. We use the expected...