Previous empirical evidence indicates that uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) does not hold for target zone exchange rates, like those in the European Monetary System and in the Nordic countries. We explore a target zone model where the market inferes the probability of a realignment of the...

The design-approach is evaluated, using a likelihood approach to survey sampling. It is argued that a model-based approach is unavoidable from a scientific point of view. Estimating population quantities can then be regarded as a prediction problem. Predictive likelihood methods are considered...

When decomposing differences in average economic outcome between two groups of individuals, it is common practice to base the analysis on logarithms if the dependent variable is nonnegative. This paper argues that this approach raises a number of undesired statistical and conceptual issues...

We propose a new approach for performing detailed decompositions of average outcome differentials, which can be applied to all types of generalized linear models. A simulation exercise demonstrates that our method produces more convincing results than existing methods. An empirical application...

In this paper, we critically review conceptual and empirical issues surrounding the derivation of the international poverty line, expressed in PPP-adjusted dollars and linked to various rounds of the International Comparison of Prices (ICP). We find that there are some limitations in the current...

The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) is not the first attempt to examine poverty along multiple definitions. Vis-a-vis the existing work and other presently available measures, this method has greater advantage in terms of international comparability and reporting. However, the methodology...

The World Bank's global poverty estimates suffer from deep-seated problems arising from a single source, the lack of a standard for identifying who is poor and who is not that is consistent and meaningful. The new choice of an international poverty line of $1.90 (2011 PPP) does not in any way...

In many developing countries, there does not exist a time series of nationally repre- sentative household budget or income surveys, while there often are urban household surveys as well as nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) which lack information on incomes. This...

In this paper we propose a new measure of vulnerability called vulnerability to downside risk. The relevant benchmark for this new measure is the current level of wellbeing of a household as opposed to another benchmark such as the poverty line. We argue that this measure adds complementary...

The official measure to analyse poverty in Germany is the at-risk-of-poverty rate, defined as 60 per cent of the median net equivalence income. The severe methodological weaknesses of this rate seem to be the main source for the uncertainty that the issue of poverty in Germany generates in the...