The Multiplicative Ergodic Theorem provides a novel general methodology to analyze rational expectations models with stochastically varying coefficients. The approach is applied for the first time to economics and analyzes the canonical New Keynesian model with a Taylor rule which switches...

While rational expectations models with time-varying (random) coefficients have gained some esteem, the understanding of their dynamic properties is still in its infancy. The paper adapts results from the theory of random dynamical systems to solve and analyze the stability of rational...

We develop an econometric model for firm exit, using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) as a starting point. According to SDP, the value of an operating firm can be written as the sum of (i) the net present value of continuing production if the firm is committed to a future exit date, and (ii)...

We use the Stock and Wise approximation of stochastic dynamic programming in order to identify the extent to which profitability can explain exit behavior. In our econometric model, heterogeneous firms engage in Bertrand (price) competition. Firms produce heterogeneous products, using labor,...

In 2002/2003, the Nordic hydro-dominated power market faced a short-term supply shock. In autumn, precipitation and inflow were unusually low. As a result, there were record high prices in the following winter. Questions were raised whether the deregulated market creates sufficient incentives to...

Reduced transportation costs are usually associated with lower import prices, increased trade and price convergence. In this paper we show that the lower costs can actually lead to higher import prices in some regions, and price divergence between import regions. Using both a general theoretical...

The EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) is breaking new ground in the experience with emission trading regimes across multiple jurisdictions. Since the EU ETS covers only some industries, it implies a hybrid emission control scheme where EU member states must apply complementary domestic emissions...

The regional natural gas markets are expected to gradually become more integrated. The major driving forces are lower LNG costs, more spot trade, and increased need for imports into the US and other key markets. In this paper we examine various scenarios for a future global gas market,...

We consider an international emissions trading scheme with partial sectoral and regional coverage. Sectoral and regional expansion of the trading scheme is beneficial in aggregate, but not necessarily for individual countries. We simulate international CO2 emission quota markets using marginal...

While little attention has been paid to the role of profitability in the empirical literature on firm exit, we employ a detailed recently established database of Norwegian manufacturing firms to identify the extent to which profitability explains a firm's exit behavior. Some key characteristics...