Fertility contagion through social networks increasingly attracts the interest of demographers. While these theories propose a causal mechanism, they are rarely put to test in a plausibly causal statistical design. This study applies quasi-experimental techniques to distinguish network effects...

The paper suggests two encompassing tests for evaluating multi-step system forecasts invariant to linear transformations. An invariant measure for forecast accuracy is necessary as the conclusions otherwise can depend on how the forecasts are reported (e.g., as in level or growth rates)....

This paper studies the propagation and properties of a confidence shock in a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model with and without financial variables. The addition of a financial block does not considerably change the propagation and the contribution to the forecast error variance by...

We identify the dynamic causal effects of interest rate floor shocks, exploiting regular auctions of Swiss central bank debt securities (SNB Bills). A theoretical model shows that variation in the volume of, and yield on, central bank debt changes the interest rate floor. In addition, the model...

In this paper, I study the drop of real GDP volatility which has been observed in the United States during the postwar period. This paper thoroughly estimates how much sectoral shifts contributed to this phenomenon called the Great Moderation. In a short section, Stock and Watson (2003) find...

This paper investigates the quality of preliminary figures in the Norwegian national accounts. To address the problem of few observations in such analyses, we use some recently developed system tests. Preliminary figures for gross fixed capital formation (investments) under-predict the final...

We study the role of R&D spillovers when modelling total factor productivity (TFP) by industry. Using Norwegian industry level data, we find that for many industries there are significant spillovers from both domestic sources and from technological change at the international frontier....

The paper derives a test for equal predictability of multi-step-ahead system forecasts that is invariant to linear transformations. The test is a multivariate version of the Diebold-Mariano test. An invariant metric for multi-step-ahead system forecasts is necessary as the conclusions otherwise...

The recent boom in house prices in many countries during the Covid-19 pandemic and the possibility of household financial distress are of concern among some central banks. We revisit the empirical modelling of house prices and household debt with a policy-oriented perspective using Norwegian...

We identify variables that help explain the persistent weakness of the Norwegian krone since 2016 within a fully simultaneous model of the underlying process driving the krone-euro exchange rate. In addition to a set of fundamental variables we consider non-traditional explanatory variables...