This paper proposes a method for the welfare analysis of pay-as-you-go social security systems. We derive a formula for the welfare consequences of a permanent marginal change in the payroll tax rate that is valid under weak assumptions about the deep structure of the economy. Our approach...

The main goal of the Norwegian pension reform of 2011 is to improve long run fiscal sustainability, not least through stronger labour supply incentives. We assess to what extent the reform is likely to live up to these intentions. To this end we combine a dynamic microsimulation model, which...

Over the life course members of an insurance system normally will contribute by payments when in working age, and later receive pension benefits as e.g. disabled or old-age pensioners. Total expected discounted contributions from labour market earnings may be compared to the expected discounted...

In this paper we use an advanced micro-simulation model to study the distributional effects of the reformed Norwegian pension system with a particular focus on gender equality. The reformed Norwegian system is based on the NDC-formula with fixed contribution/accrual rates over the active...

We study the relationship between early claiming of pensions and incentives in the highly flexible Norwegian public pension system, measuring incentives to claim based on an estimated model for expected longevity. Despite a strong correlation between incentives and claiming decisions, the...

A precautionary saving model is extended to include old-age pensions and provides the framework for an empirical analysis of the relation between old-age pensions and private consumption. Norwegian macro-data for socioeconomic groups of households are used to estimate consumption functions for...

In this paper, we use a binary choice panel data model to analyze married individuals.retirement behavior in Norway when a new option, AFP early retirement becomes available. We focus our study on the influence of the spouse.s characteristics on early retirement behavior. We find the directions...

Ageing combined with generous welfare state schemes makes the present fiscal policy in Norway unsustainable, despite large government petroleum revenues. We estimate to what extent two suggested reforms of the public pension system improve fiscal sustainability and stimulate employment, two main...

A much higher old-age dependency ratio together with more generous pension benefits will lead to a substantial increase in the future pension burden in Norway. The challenges of financing the increasing pension expenditures depend on the development in demographic characteristics like fertility,...

We investigate the impact of plant downsizing on disability pension utilization in Norway. Plant downsizing substantially increases the disability entry rate of workers in affected plants. Workers originally employed in plants that closed between 1993 and 1998 were 27.9 percent more likely to...