Models using the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) are widely recognized to be inconsistent with the observed behavior of premia in financial markets, as well as other features of asset price dynamics. Moreover, many reasons have been advanced as to why the REH cannot generally represent,...

Asset prices undergo long swings that revolve around benchmark levels. In currency markets, fluctuations involve real exchange rates that are highly persistent and that move in near-parallel fashion with nominal rates. The inability to explain these two regularities with one model has been...

This paper discusses a number of likelihood ratio tests on long-run relations and common trends in the I(2) model and provide new results on the test of overidentifying restrictions on β’xt and the asymptotic variance for the stochastic trends parameters, α⊥1: How to specify deterministic...

This paper offers a refinement and explores a resolution of the excess-returns puzzle in the foreign exchange market. We find that the predictions of the forward premium are not negatively biased throughout the three decades of floating, as commonly believed, but rather are sometimes positively...