The literature on exchange markets conventionally defines the gap between the forward exchange rate and the expected future spot exchange rate as an "exchange risk premium." Part I of this paper skeptically reviews existing interpretations of the exchange risk premium and then presents an...

The research reported in this set of three working papers focuses on different assumptions about the intertemporal behavior of government policymakers. In particular, we carefully study alternative specifications of intertemporal fiscal closure rules and their impacts on the effectiveness of...

In this second of a series of three working papers, we use a simple neoclassical growth model to illustrate how consumption, investment, and output -- more broadly, the entire dynamic equation system of a model -- can be strongly influenced by alternative specifications of a reaction function...

In this paper, I focus on the stabilization properties of alternative simplified approaches to the conduct of monetary policy and fiscal policy. The paper is motivated by questions of topical interest in New Zealand, for example what the costs might be in terms of lost credibility if the Reserve...

In contemporary New Zealand, microeconomics is in the ascendant over macroeconomics, to such an extent that neither the Reserve Bank nor the Cabinet and Treasury appear to give much attention to shorter-run macroeconomic stabilization as a policy goal. This lecture examines why thoughtful New...

An important aspect of macroeconomic interdependence in the Asia Pacific region is the adjustment of trade and current account balances in response to changes in saving and investment rates in individual economies. Greater trade flows, reliance on imported intermediate goods as well as more...

This paper describes in detail the theoretical and empirical features of the G-Cubed multi-country, multi-sector intertemporal general equilibrium model. The G-Cubed model has been used for a number of alternative policy simulations including the implications of greenhouse gas policy, trade...

The financial debacle that followed the Mexican devaluation in December 1994 left many analysts, investors and observers bewildered by its magnitude. This paper argues that the causes of the devaluation are quite different from the causes of the crisis, so different that the financial crisis was...

The Bogor Declaration of 1994 proposed free trade in the Asia Pacific region by the year 2020. If implemented as announced, this program will have important implications for the world economy over the next few decades. This paper uses a new dynamic multi-sector global model called the...

This paper summarizes the debate on the costs and benefits of regional and global action to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases. The paper also presents new evidence on possible future global emissions of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels where these emissions are disaggregated by...