A canonical model is described which reflects the real time informational context of decision-making. Comparisons are drawn with ‘conventional’ models that incorrectly omit market-informed insights on future macroeconomic conditions and inappropriately incorporate information that was not...

Defining a recessionary event as one which impacts adversely on individuals’ economic well-being, the paper argues that recession is a multi-faceted phenomenon whose meaning differs from person to person as it impacts on their decision-making in real time. It argues that recession is best...

An output gap measure is suggested based on the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of output using a vector-autoregressive model that includes data on actual output and on expected output obtained from surveys. The paper explains the advantages of using survey data in business cycle analysis and the...

Alternative methods for the seasonal adjustment of economic data are described that operate in the time domain and in the frequency domain. The time-domain method, which employs a classical comb filter, mimics the effects of the model-based procedures of the SEATS–TRAMO and STAMP programs. The...

The paper provides new insights into the role of financial liberalization in the South Korean financial crisis using a number of novel approaches. Firstly, primary information regarding the relaxation of financial restraints, such as interest rate ceilings, capital controls and reserve...

In this paper we modify the method of Blanchard and Quah (1989) in order to estimate a structural VAR model appropriate for a small open economy. In this way we identify shocks to output and prices in the members of the two monetary unions that make up the African CFA Franc Zone. The costs of...

In this paper we use data from 17 African nations in order to investigate the hypothesis that monetary union – represented in this case by the CFA Franc Zone – augments the extent of macroeconomic integration in developing countries. The paper covers a number of dimensions of integration...

In this paper we develop a model to identify determinants of macroeconomic integration in the African CFA Franc Zone and in Dollar-pegging Caribbean countries (including members of the East Caribbean Currency Union). These two groups of countries each comprise states using several different...

In this paper we develop a model to identify real exchange rate and output shocks in the African CFA Franc Zone and in Dollar-pegging Caribbean countries (including members of the East Caribbean Currency Union). These two groups of countries each comprise states using several different local...

In this paper we modify the method of Blanchard and Quah (1989) in order to estimate a structural VAR model appropriate for a small open economy. In this way we identify shocks to output and prices in the members of the two monetary unions that make up the African CFA Franc Zone. The costs of...