We present a theoretical model of moral hazard and adverse selection in an imperfectly competitive loans market that is suitable for application to Africa. The model allows for variation in both the level of contract enforcement (depending on the quality of governance) and the degree of market...

Using quarterly data for the last four decades, we test a number of traditional assumptions about aggregate consumer behaviour in the UK, with regard to the order of integration of the time series, the income elasticity of consumption and the stability of the parameters of the consumption...

We construct a time-series model of investment in Israel that incorporates both traditional economic factors derived from a theoretical model of a profit-maximising representative firm and indicators of political instability and unrest. This is used to estimate the extent to which the Intifada...

Analysis of cross-sectional data on tourism to Israel during the Intifada period reveals some of the factors driving the behaviour of tourists from different countries. A large part of the heterogeneity in the observed response of different nationalities can be explained by socio-economic...

In this paper we modify the method of Blanchard and Quah (1989) in order to estimate a structural VAR model appropriate for a small open economy. In this way we identify shocks to output and prices in the members of the two monetary unions that make up the African CFA Franc Zone. The costs of...

In this paper we investigate some of the ways in which short-term variations in the magnitude of political instability can impact on macroeconomic performance, taking the example of Israel since 1987. Several indicators of political instability are found to have a significant impact on aggregate...

In this paper we use data from 17 African nations in order to investigate the hypothesis that monetary union – represented in this case by the CFA Franc Zone – augments the extent of macroeconomic integration in developing countries. The paper covers a number of dimensions of integration...

This paper presents an econometric model that combines macroeconomic time series data with historical series relating to political instability in Israel during the Intifada period, in order to provide a conservative estimate of the extent to which variations in economic performance over time...

In this paper we estimate a model of the determinants of economic and social development that takes seriously three of the criticisms of panel data models in the existing growth literature: that long run coefficients are biased because the lagged dependent variable is not strictly exogenous;...

We put forward a plausible explanation of African financial underdevelopment in the form of a bad credit market equilibrium. Utilising an appropriately modified IO model of banking, we show that the root of the problem could be unchecked moral hazard (strategic loan defaults) or adverse...