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-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that both pooling and accounting for spatial effects helps to substantially improve the forecast …-of-sample forecasting of the growth rates of flats' prices and rents for the next six months is done. It shows that in most cities both …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010896203
even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast accuracy gain as measured by the root mean squared … spatial dependence structure into regional forecasting models, especially, when long-term forecasts are made. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963925
In this paper, we evaluate the forecasting ability of 115 indicators to predict the housing prices and rents in 71 … tested in a framework of a quasi out-of-sample forecasting. Its results are quite heterogeneous. No single indicator appears …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011128875
The surge in the German house prices starting in 2010 raised fears about the emergence of a speculative bubble. Given a local nature of housing markets, it is not clear to what extent the bubble, if any, is spread across different cities. In this paper, we test for speculative house price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010942857
In this paper, the framework of the aggregated Beveridge curve is used to investigate the effectiveness of the job matching process using German regional labour market data. For a fixed matching technology, the Beveridge curve postulates a negative relationship between the unemployment rate and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005069059
We estimate the political economy determinants of budget deficit forecast errors. Since the adoption of the Stability Pact, Eurozone governments have manipulated forecasts before elections. The political orientation and the institutional design of governments also affects the quality of forecasts.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005018688
This paper considers the issue of forecasting financial fragility of banks and insurances using a panel data set of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963890
subject to revisions. This makes them an excellent source of information for the macroeconomic forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008549317
-on-quarter growth rates in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the … for GDP forecasting although their ranking depends on the underlying transformation of monthly indicators from which the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008615361
This paper investigates the causal impact of displacement on health outcomes for Colombian children of different age cohorts. It uses the Colombian Demographic and Health Survey 2010, which provides both a number of health outcomes and information about displacement of households. Two different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010937931