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Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area Real GDP Growth : An Assessment of Real-Time Performance Based on Vintage Data

Diron, Marie - 2021

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317625

Does Uncertainty Affect Participation in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters?

López-Pérez, Víctor - 2015

This paper explores how changes in macroeconomic uncertainty have affected the decision to participate in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. Two different approaches are employed in order to address this question. First, a time-series analysis explores if changes in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020645

Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity

Drechsel, Katja; Maurin, Laurent - 2008

Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising the relevant monthly indicators, simple bridge equations with one explanatory variable are estimated for each. The individual forecasts generated by each equation are then pooled,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604971

Flow on Conjunctural Information and Forecast of Euro Area Economic Activity

Drechsel, Katja; Maurin, Laurent - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316489

Shadow-rate VARs

Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano - 2023

VARs are a popular tool for forecasting and structural analysis, but ill-suited to handle occasionally binding …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014320745

Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters

Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal - 2023

Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014472058

The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies

Mehl, Arnaud - 2006

-of-sample forecasting performance. Differences across countries are seemingly linked to market liquidity. The paper further finds that the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604737

Fiscal forecasting: lessons from the literature and challenges

Leal, Teresa; Pérez, Javier J.; Tujula, Mika; Vidal, … - 2007

While fiscal forecasting and monitoring has its roots in the accountability of governments for the use of public funds … discusses the main issues and challenges in the field of fiscal forecasting from a practitioner’s perspective and places them in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604889

The New Area-Wide Model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis

Christoffel, Kai; Coenen, Günter; Warne, Anders - 2008

’s forecasting performance relative to a number of benchmarks, including a Bayesian VAR. We finally consider several applications to … illustrate the potential contributions the NAWM can make to forecasting and policy analysis. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604990

Early estimates of euro area real GDP growth: a bottom up approach from the production side

Hahn, Elke; Skudelny, Frauke - 2008

as a pseudo real time forecasting exercise, i.e. due account is taken of the pattern of available monthly variables over …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605021