Fiscal policymakers are expected to conduct countercyclical policies to mitigate cyclical fluctuations of output, but the assessment of cyclical conditions in real time is subject to considerable uncertainty. They face two types of risk: (i) launching discretionary measures to support or dampen...

In this paper, we construct a single composite financial stress indicator (FSI) which aims to predict developments in the real economy in the euro area. Our FSI was shown to perform better than the Euro STOXX 50 volatility index for the recent banking crisis and the euro-area sovereign debt...

This paper examines the Lucas Paradox and the Allocation Puzzle of international capital flows referring to a panel data set of EMU countries and major industrialized and emerging economies. Overall, the results do not provide evidence in favour of the Lucas Paradox and the Allocation Puzzle....

We distinguish exogenous liquidity, which corresponds to the variability of bid-ask spreads for usual-sized transactions, from endogenous liquidity, which we interpret as the impact of liquidity on market prices when liquidating larger positions. Endogenous liquidity measures the risk that the...

This paper introduces the topic of Europe's changing financial landscape and highlights the findings of the contributions to this volume of the EIB Papers. Key points emerging from this overview include: (i) a variety of factors are reshaping Europe's finance, notably the Single Market, EMU,...

The 1992 "Single Market" failed to create a real single market for financial services across Europe. However, the boom in bond issuance (stimulated by EMU) and the coincidental equity issuance boom have both led to dramatic changes in the infrastructure of financial markets. So, the EU is well...

The launch of the euro proved to be extraordinarily smooth - auguring well for its future. If the EU can build on this initial success, then citizens - from anywhere in the world - should come to recognise the euro as a robust 'store of value' for their savings. That should complete the...