Probit models are employed to evaluate leading indicators for Germany's recessions. The predictive power of leading indicators is found to be lower than assumed in previous studies. Although, monetary variables provide the best predictive power for recessions, survey data and order inflows show...

When studying particular subgroups of a population, like for instance lone parents, the econometrician typically has few observations at hand. In such a situation, it is vital to take advantage of any valid complementary information that may be available. In this paper we illustrate, for the...

Die vorliegende Arbeit befaßt sich mit den Effekten beruflicher Weiterbildung auf die Entlassungswahrscheinlichkeit und die Wahrscheinlichkeit eigenmotivierter Kündigungen westdeutscher Arbeitnehmer. Als Datengrundlage dient das Sozio-oekonomische Panel (SOEP) 1984?1999. Zur Berücksichtigung...

Based on a Cox Proportional Hazard analysis of German unemployment spells, structural change of the production process is identified as a major explanation for long-term unemployment. Other important covariates capture labor market institutions, macroeconomic stress factors, and individual...

Although explanations of the persistence of high unemployment in Germany, in particular long-term unemployment, have increasingly focused on structural factors, there is only very limited evidence on their empirical importance so far. In this paper, these factors are analyzed based on a...

Im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Forschung und Technologie führt das ZEW seit 1993 im Rahmen des Projektes 'Erhebungen zur Beschreibung des Innovationsverhaltens der deutschen Wirtschaft' umfangreiche Unternehmensbefragungen durch. Mit dem Mannheimer Innovationspanel wird in mehrfacher...

This paper addresses three major aspects of firms' process innovative activity: forward- looking behaviour, uncertainty w.r.t. returns of R&D investments, and oligopolistic competition on the product market. Assuming that R&D expenditures are cost-reducing investments, we derive an Euler...