lower when policymakers overestimate GDP growth ex-ante. Finally, a solid institutional environment supporting commitment to …

debt above 60 percent or deficits above 3 percent of GDP. We find that the proposed framework would require ambitious … fiscal adjustment: on average, more than 2 percent of GDP over the medium term, in addition to the adjustment that is already … framework. We also find that for most countries with debt above 60 percent of GDP, these adjustment requirements are driven by …

originating from cyclical movements in commodity prices: fiscal rules for government expenditures, capital controls, and taxes on …

magnitude of the bias is considerable: on average, real-time cyclical components as a percentage of GDP are biased downwards by …