This paper contrasts empirically four leading models of inflation dynamics - the accelerationist Phillips curve (APC), new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC), hybrid Phillips curve (HPC) and sticky information Phillips curve (SIPC). We employ an encompassing Phillips curve specification that allows...

Using a nonlinear Bayesian likelihood approach that fully accounts for the lower bound on nominal interest rates, we analyze US post-crisis macroeconomic dynamics and provide reference parameter estimates. We find that despite the attention received in the literature, neither the inclusion of...

We present a sticky-price model incorporating heterogeneous firms and systematic firm-level productivity trends. Aggregating the model in closed form, we show that it delivers radically different predictions for the optimal inflation rate than canonical sticky price models featuring homogenous...

We analyze an estimated stochastic general equilibrium model that replicates key macroeconomic and financial stylized facts during the Great Moderation of 1983-2007. Our model predicts a sizeable and volatile nominal term premium - comparable to recent reduced-form empirical estimates - with...

A feature of recent monetary policy asset purchase programmes is the reinvestment policy: the central bank announces to keep the overall volume of assets on its balance sheet constant for some time. In this paper, we systematically assess the macroeconomic effects of such reinvestment policies....

This paper derives alternative measures of the short-run NAIRU (SRN) for the UK, the rate for unemployment at which inflation will neither increase nor decrease in the short-run. We estimate the NAIRU jointly with price equations by using the Kalman filter. Our work suggests that both structural...

We investigate the extent to which the effect of the 2018/2019 US import tariff hikes on US (post-tariff) import prices was offset by the concurrent appreciation of the US dollar and trace the source of the appreciation back to US trade policy itself. The dollar response to trade policy...

In this article, we study how the economic environment for firms in the service sector affects their price adjustments by using a novel dataset from the Services Survey of the Brazilian Institute of Economics from the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV). The set of variables from the survey includes...

The failure to predict the surge in inflation in 2021 raises questions about whether we are better equipped to anticipate a future decline in inflation. What tools do we intend to use for predicting the trajectory of inflation? Are we still primarily relying on survey data regarding inflation...