This paper proposes a test for missing at random (MAR). The MAR assumption is shown to be testable given instrumental variables which are independent of response given potential outcomes. A nonparametric testing procedure based on integrated squared distance is proposed. The statistic's...

We analyze Granger causality testing in a mixed-frequency VAR, where the difference in sampling frequencies of the variables is large. Given a realistic sample size, the number of high-frequency observations per low-frequency period leads to parameter proliferation problems in case we attempt to...

I assess how dissenting views on appropriate monetary policy result in disagreement about the macroeconomic outlook of Federal Open Market Committee members. FOMC members that voted for a higher Fed Funds Rate than the majority of voters also forecast higher inflation rates, while they forecast...

Forecasts are useless whenever the forecast error variance fails to be smaller than the unconditional variance of the target variable. This paper develops tests for the null hypothesis that forecasts become uninformative beyond some limiting forecast horizon h. Following Diebold and Mariano (DM,...

The interest rate assumptions for macroeconomic forecasts differ considerably among central banks. Common approaches are given by the assumption of constant interest rates, interest rates expected by market participants, or the central bank’s own interest rate expectations. From a theoretical...

This paper develops high-frequency econometric methods to test for jumps in the spread of bond yields. We derive a coherent inference procedure that detects a jump in the yield spread only if at least one of the two underlying bonds displays a jump. We formalize the test as a sequential...

Virtually each seasonal adjustment software includes an ensemble of seasonality tests for assessing whether a given time series is in fact a candidate for seasonal adjustment. However, such tests are certain to produce either the same resultor conflicting results, raising the question if there...

This paper studies high-frequency econometric methods to test for a jump in the spread of bond yields. We propose a coherent inference procedure that detects a jump in the yield spread only if at least one of the two underlying bonds displays a jump. Ignoring this inherent connection by basing...

Climate change causes natural disasters to occur at higher frequency and increased severity. Using a unique dataset on German banks, this paper explores how regionally less diversified banks in Germany adjusted their loan loss provisioning following the severe summer flood of 2013, which...