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Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

Blanchard, Olivier J. - 2013

This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085993

U.S. Investment Since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017

Kopp, Emanuel - 2019

There is no consensus on how strongly the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) has stimulated U.S. private fixed investment …. Some argue that the business tax provisions spurred investment by cutting the cost of capital. Others see the TCJA …, fallen short of predictions based on the postwar relation with tax cuts. Model simulations and firm-level data suggest that …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866908

Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts

Bluedorn, John C. - 2019

We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868467

A New Action-Based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation in Latin America and the Caribbean

David, Antonio C. - 2018

This paper presents a new database of fiscal consolidations for 14 Latin American and Caribbean economies during 1989-2016. We focus on discretionary changes in taxes and government spending primarily motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and long-term fiscal health and not by a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012918471

The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation

Ball, Laurence - 2013

suggests that spending-based adjustments have had, on average, larger distributional effects than tax-based adjustments …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013079259

The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies : Evidence from Latin America

Carriere-Swallow, Yan - 2018

We estimate the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in 14countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. We examine contemporaneous policy documents to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913884

A New Action-Based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation

Pescatori, Andrea; Leigh, Daniel; Guajardo, Jaime; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011

This paper presents a new dataset of fiscal consolidation for 17 OECD economies during 1978-2009. We focus on discretionary changes in taxes and government spending primarily motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by a response to prospective economic conditions. To identify...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009151218

Catch-Up Growth, Habits, Oil Depletion, and Fiscal Policy; Lessons From the Republic of Congo

Carcillo, Stéphane; Villafuerte, Mauricio; Leigh, Daniel - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007

In a number of oil producing countries, oil revenue accounts for the majority of government revenue, but is expected to be depleted in a relatively short time frame. Ensuring that fiscal policy is on a sustainable path is thus a high priority, but political and social adjustment costs create...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263833

Fiscal Adjustments; Determinants and Macroeconomic Consequences

Plekhanov, Alexander; Kumar, Manmohan S.; Leigh, Daniel - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007

The paper analyzes the determinants of success of recent fiscal consolidations in the OECD countries as well as the short-run and long-run effects of fiscal adjustments on economic activity by looking at fourteen case studies, panel data for OECD countries, and the results of simulations using a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599708

Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence

Leigh, Daniel; Pescatori, Andrea; Guajardo, Jaime - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011

This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009203541