In this paper, we analyze politicians’ expectations about future compliance with a fiscal rule, and in particular the dependence of the expectations on their role in parliament (opposition vs. incumbent government coalition). In addition, we explore how opposition and incumbent politicians...

Low-skilled immigrants indirectly affect public finances through their effect on native wages & labor supply. We operationalize this indirect fiscal effect in various models of immigration and the labor market. We derive closed-form expressions for this effect in terms of estimable statistics....

Using data from a unique survey of members of parliaments in France, Germany and Italy in 2018, we estimate the effects of three dimensions on EU and euro area fiscal reform preferences: nationality, political ideology, and populism. We predict and confirm that a German populist party on the...

Low-skilled immigrants indirectly affect public finances through their effect on resident wages & labor supply. We operationalize this indirect fiscal effect in a model of immigration and the labor market. We derive closed-form expressions for this effect in terms of estimable statistics. An...