predictable. Moreover, using filtering techniques designed to process data subject to revisions, the real-time forecasting … aggregate GDP level appears to be good luck rather than good forecasting. …

the pandemic period, as well as for earlier subsamples of relatively high volatility. In historical forecasting, outlier …

VARs are a popular tool for forecasting and structural analysis, but ill-suited to handle occasionally binding …

forecasting techniques, e.g. correlation forecasts based on historical values and on a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model … varied. We find that the applied volatility forecasting models have a strong influence on the expected net present value … distribution and on the probability of default. In contrast, correlation forecasting models play a minor role. Time resolution and …

forecasting model for another variable, and hence our use of terminology such as ?out-of-sample Granger causality? (see e …