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Europe's long-term growth prospects : with and without structural reforms

McQuinn, Kieran; Whelan, Karl - 2015

Even before the financial crisis of 2007/08, there were significant questions about Europe's long-term growth prospects. After a long period of catching up with US levels of labour productivity, euro area productivity growth had, from the mid-1990s onwards, fallen significantly behind. Using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010517186

Debt sharing after Covid-19: how the direct involvement of EU institutions could impact the recovery path of a member state

McQuinn, Kieran; Varthalitis, Petros - 2020

The likely substantial impact of Covid-19 related measures on the public finances of European countries has prompted an unprecedented call for new and significant policies at a European level to alleviate the pressures on individual member states. The administrative closures adopted across a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012239768

The (pro-)cyclicality of government consumption in the EU and official expectations of future output growth: new evidence

Cronin, David; McQuinn, Kieran - 2020

Data from member states' Stability and Convergence Programmes from 2011 to 2018 are used to assess the cyclicality of government consumption in the EU after the European Semester took effect. Econometric estimations, which address endogeneity issues, find the intended (ex-ante) fiscal policy to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012307910

Have Irish sovereign bonds decoupled from the euro area periphery, and why?

Cronin, David; Dunne, Peter G.; McQuinn, Kieran - 2019

This paper considers whether Ireland's sovereign bonds have decoupled from other euro area sovereigns (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain - the "periphery") with whom it was categorised during the sovereign bond market crisis of the early 2010s. Having initially reviewed yield and sovereign...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012018699

The housing net worth channel and the public finances : evidence from a European country panel

Cronin, David; McQuinn, Kieran - 2022

In the growing literature on the importance of household balance sheets to macroeconomic developments, the relationship between housing wealth and fiscal outturns needs consideration given the likely links between housing market developments and particular tax headings. We adopt the housing net...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013335918

Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries

Cronin, David; McQuinn, Kieran - 2023

Against a backdrop of debt ratio targets being central to recent proposed changes to the EU fiscal rules, we examine errors in official forecasts of the General Government debt ratios and their determinants in 26 member states from 2012 to 2019 when the "six pack" rules applied. We find debt...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014321084

Monetary tightening in the Euro Area : implications for residential investment

Egan, Paul; McQuinn, Kieran - 2023

In this paper we assess the implications for housing supply across the Euro Area of the recent tightening in monetary policy. Official monetary policy rates have risen in response to the sustained period of inflation experienced across countries due to the aftermath of the Covid epidemic and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014438686

Assessing expectations of European house prices

Verma, Akhilesh Kumar; McQuinn, Kieran - 2024

Using a new database of consumers expectations, this paper examines the nature of house price forecasts across a select sample of European Union (EU) member states for the period 2020 to 2024. Across many EU countries, post Covid-19, house price increases have been apparent. Therefore,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014577677

Labour market fluctuations and the housing net worth channel in the EU

Cronin, David; McQuinn, Kieran - 2021

The credit-driven housing net worth channel has been identified as a determinant of the sharp drop in US employment … differences. For the full panel, we find changes in housing net worth having a significant effect on total employment and its non … significant effects on employment pertain to the post-2007 era when credit conditions were considerably more restrictive. In …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012694815