This paper investigates the link between sovereign ratings and macroeconomic fundamentals for a group of euro area countries which recorded rating downgrades amid the euro area sovereign debt crisis. We apply an elaborated econometric estimation technique, based on a Bayesian ordered probit...

This paper aims to shed light on the characteristics and particularly the determinants of credit-less recoveries. After building a dataset and documenting some stylised facts of credit-less recoveries in emerging market economies, this paper uses panel probit models to analyse key determinants...

We estimate an ordered probit model in order to explain the occurrence and magnitude of producer price changes in the French manufacturing sector. We use data consisting essentially of the Banque de France monthly business surveys, pooled over the years 1998-2005. Our results show that changes...

This paper aims to shed light on the characteristics and particularly the determinants of credit-less recoveries. After building a dataset and documenting some stylised facts of credit-less recoveries in emerging market economies, this paper uses panel probit models to analyse key determinants...

Birth rates differ strongly across European states, https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/55902despite the deep economic harmonisation process related to European integration. This study uses large scale administrative data from France and Germany to analyse and directly compare fertility patterns...

We analyze whether, and if so by how much, stable funding would have contributed to the financial soundness of German banks in the time period between 1995 and 2013, before the Basel III liquidity regulation to address excessive maturity mismatches in the wake of the financial crisis via the Net...

Social and economic networks are ubiquitous, serving as contexts for job search, technology diffusion, the accumulation of human capital and even the formulation of norms and values. The systematic empirical study of network formation - the process by which agents form, maintain and dissolve...

Virtually each seasonal adjustment software includes an ensemble of seasonality tests for assessing whether a given time series is in fact a candidate for seasonal adjustment. However, such tests are certain to produce either the same resultor conflicting results, raising the question if there...

This paper identifies the basic features of the price setting mechanism in the Spanish economy, using a large dataset that contains over 1.1 million price records and covers around 70% of the expenditure on the CPI basket. In particular, the paper identifies differences in the frequency and size...

We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely-used probit approach, but the dynamics of regressors are endogenized using a VAR. The combined model is called a ‘ProbVAR’. At any point in time, the ProbVAR allows to...