This paper introduces a stress test of the corporate credit portfolios of 24 large German banks by a two-stage approach: First, a macro-econometric model is used to forecast the impact of a substantial increase of the user cost of business capital for firms worldwide on three particularly...

Life insurers typically grant policyholders a surrender option. We demonstrate that the resulting lapse risk could materialise in the form of a "policyholder run" if interest rates were to increase sharply. An inverse stress test based on a unique set of regulatory panel data suggests that...

We develop a macroeconomic portfolio stress test that is specifically geared towards small and medium-sized banks. We combine a credit risk stress test which simulates credit impairments via a CreditMetrics type multi-factor portfolio model with an income stress test in the form of dynamic panel...

More than 25 years after German reunification, key economic indicators for households living in eastern German regions are still below the western German levels. This particularly holds for private net wealth, which reaches only about 40% of the western German level. However, a more granular...

Affine term structure models of bond yields are important tools for analyzing fixed income markets and monetary policy. Estimators of Adrian, Crump, and Mönch (2013) and Diez de Los Rios (2015) replace time-consuming nonlinear search procedures with a set of simple linear regressions. However,...

The economic policy response to COVID-19 lockdowns included a variety of measures. Their effects on non-financial firms, however, remain unclear. To shed light on the effect of transfers, we investigate the effect of German emergency aid transfers (November-December aid), a program designed for...

This paper provides a general framework for integration of high-frequency intraday data into the measurement forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting financial asset return volatilities, correlations, and...

Modern systems of official statistics require the timely estimation of area-specific densities of sub-populations. Ideally estimates should be based on precise geo-coded information, which is not available due to confidentiality constraints. One approach for ensuring confidentiality is by...