In this paper we predict the pure demographic effect on medical expenditure of the German Statutory Health Insurance Scheme. To isolate this effect, we assume that the age-specific expenditure for medical treatment as observed in 1991 remains constant over the whole prediction period (1991 until...

This paper analyses the pure demographic effect on medical expenditure and the contribution rate of the German Statutory Health Insurance Scheme. To isolate this effect, we assume that the age-specific expenditure for medical treatment as estimated in 1995 remains constant over the whole...

The German population is aging. Since fewer children are born and simultaneously life expectancy rises, demographic changes will lead to a double aging process. The paper analyzes the effects of demographic changes on the public budget by applying a cointegration analysis to global budget...