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Inflation expectations, disagreement, and monetary policy

Hoffmann, Mathias; Hürtgen, Patrick - 2016

Survey data on inflation expectations show that: (i) private sector forecasts and central bank forecasts are not fully aligned and (ii) private sector forecasters disagree about inflation expectations. To reconcile these two facts we introduce dispersed information in a New Keynesian model,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520661

The margins of US trade

Bernard, Andrew B.; Jensen, J. Bradford; Redding, Stephen; … - 2009

Recent research in international trade emphasizes the importance of firms’ extensive margins for understanding overall patterns of trade as well as how firms respond to specific events such as trade liberalization. In this paper, we use detailed U.S. trade statistics to provide a broad...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003867923

Rebalancing the euro area : is wage adjustment in Germany the answer?

Hoffmann, Mathias; Kliem, Martin; Krause, Michael; … - 2020

area and the rest of the world. We find that a rise in nominal wage inflation has positive short-run effects on inflation … relationships with the rest of the world is of particular importance, as it allows to capture the induced relative price movements … consists of Germany, the rest of the euro area, and the rest of the world. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012184056

Disagreement and monetary policy

Falck, Elisabeth; Hoffmann, Mathias; Hürtgen, Patrick - 2017

Time-variation in disagreement about inflation expectations is a stylized fact in surveys, but little is known on how disagreement interacts with the efficacy of monetary policy. This paper fills this gap in providing theoretical predictions of monetary policy shocks for different levels of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011740252

Forceful or persistent : wow the ECB's new inflation target affects households' inflation expectations

Hoffmann, Mathias; Mönch, Emanuel; Pavlova, Lora; … - 2023

We study how households adjust their medium-term inflation expectations under the new ECB strategy. We find that survey respondents make little difference between the previous strategy of targeting inflation rates close to but below 2% and the new strategy with a symmetric 2% target. Yet,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014391441

Would households understand average inflation targeting?

Hoffmann, Mathias; Pavlova, Lora; Mönch, Emanuel; … - 2022

Yes, they would. In a randomized control trial, we provide groups of respondents from the Bundesbank Online Panel Households with information about a hypothetical alternative ECB monetary policy regime akin to the Federal Reserve’s flexible average inflation targeting (AIT). Inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013205445

On the empirical relevance of the exchange rate as a shock absorber at the zero lower bound

Finck, David; Hoffmann, Mathias; Hürtgen, Patrick - 2023 - February 3, 2023

We estimate the effects of a negative asymmetric demand shock on the real exchange rate for the euro area vis-à-vis the United States, Canada, and Japan by state-dependent sign-restricted local projection methods. We find a real depreciation when interest rates are not at the ZLB, but also when...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014320485

Do exchange rates absorb demand shocks at the ZLB?

Hoffmann, Mathias; Hürtgen, Patrick - 2021

According to the two-country full information New Keynesian model with flexible exchange rates, the real exchange rate appreciates in response to an asymmetric negative demand shock at the zero lower bound (ZLB) and exacerbates the adverse macroeconomic effects. This finding requires inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510174

The empirics of firm heterogeneity and international trade

Bernard, Andrew B.; Jensen, J. Bradford; Redding, Stephen; … - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009356687

International capital flows, external assets and output volatility

Hoffmann, Mathias; Krause, Michael; Tillmann, Peter - 2014

This paper proposes a new perspective on international capital flows and countries' long-run external asset position. Cross-sectional evidence for 84 developing countries shows that over the last three decades countries that have had on average higher volatility of output growth (1) accumulated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010433418