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We study the synchronization of credit booms and busts among 12 major European economies and the United States between 1972-2011. We propose a regression-based procedure to test whether boom-bust phases of credit cycles coincide across countries and to cluster countries with positively...
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Using a nonlinear Bayesian likelihood approach that fully accounts for the lower bound on nominal interest rates, we analyze US post-crisis macroeconomic dynamics and provide reference parameter estimates. We find that despite the attention received in the literature, neither the inclusion of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012406022
We show that one should not use the one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP-1s) as the real-time version of the two-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP-2s): First, in terms of the extracted cyclical component, HP-1s fails to remove low-frequency fluctuations to the same extent as HP-2s. Second,...
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productivity. Thus, market-wide changes in return correlation contain information about changes in future technological …
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pessimism) pertains to total factor productivity which determines economic activity in the long run. Optimism shocks are … perceived changes in productivity which do not actually materialize. We develop a new strategy to identify optimism shocks in a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011649164
conceptualised as news about a future slowdown in productivity growth in the tradable sector. Simulations show that the responses of …' for tradable producers before the slowdown in tradable sector productivity associated with Brexit occurs. Resources are … the productivity decline in the tradable sector materialises. The negative news about tradable sector productivity also …
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