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We show that one should not use the one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP-1s) as the real-time version of the two-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP-2s): First, in terms of the extracted cyclical component, HP-1s fails to remove low-frequency fluctuations to the same extent as HP-2s. Second,...
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productivity. Thus, market-wide changes in return correlation contain information about changes in future technological …
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We study the synchronization of credit booms and busts among 12 major European economies and the United States between 1972-2011. We propose a regression-based procedure to test whether boom-bust phases of credit cycles coincide across countries and to cluster countries with positively...
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pessimism) pertains to total factor productivity which determines economic activity in the long run. Optimism shocks are … perceived changes in productivity which do not actually materialize. We develop a new strategy to identify optimism shocks in a …
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conceptualised as news about a future slowdown in productivity growth in the tradable sector. Simulations show that the responses of …' for tradable producers before the slowdown in tradable sector productivity associated with Brexit occurs. Resources are … the productivity decline in the tradable sector materialises. The negative news about tradable sector productivity also …
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This paper establishes a new fact about educational production: ordinal academic rank during primary school has lasting impacts on secondary school achievement that are independent of underlying ability. Using data on the universe of English school students, we exploit naturally occurring...
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