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Using a nonlinear Bayesian likelihood approach that fully accounts for the lower bound on nominal interest rates, we analyze US post-crisis macroeconomic dynamics and provide reference parameter estimates. We find that despite the attention received in the literature, neither the inclusion of...
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pessimism) pertains to total factor productivity which determines economic activity in the long run. Optimism shocks are … perceived changes in productivity which do not actually materialize. We develop a new strategy to identify optimism shocks in a …
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We show that one should not use the one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP-1s) as the real-time version of the two-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP-2s): First, in terms of the extracted cyclical component, HP-1s fails to remove low-frequency fluctuations to the same extent as HP-2s. Second,...
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productivity. Thus, market-wide changes in return correlation contain information about changes in future technological …
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