We investigate the welfare effect of increasing competition in an anonymous two-sided matching market, where matched pairs play an infinitely repeated Prisoner's Dilemma. Higher matching efficiency is usually considered detrimental as it creates stronger incentives for defection. We point out,...

We investigate the welfare effect of increasing competition in an anonymous two-sided matching market, where matched pairs play an infinitely repeated Prisoner's Dilemma. Higher matching efficiency is usually considered detrimental as it creates stronger incentives for defection. We point out,...

Those of professional forecasters do. For a wide range of time series models for the euro area and its member states we find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF and Consensus Economics compared to their...

Short answer: It helps a lot when other important variables are excluded from the information set. Longer answer: We revisit claims in the literature that money growth is Granger-causal for inflation at low frequencies. Applying frequency-specific tests in a comprehensive system setup for...

We study how millions of highly granular and weekly household scanner data combined with novel machine learning techniques can help to improve the nowcast of monthly German inflation in real time. Our nowcasting exercise targets three hierarchy levels of the official consumer price index. First,...

Among the most important tasks of central banks is to ensure the availability of cash to credit institutions and retailers. Forecasting the demand for cash on a granular level is crucial in the process to keep logistics costs low, while being resilient to demand or supply shocks. Whereas to...