Recent research has found that macroeconomic survey forecasts of uncertainty exhibit several deficiencies, such as horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation uncertainty forecasts from the Bank of England, the Banco...

I study whether monetary gold hoarding was the main cause of the Great Depression in a structural VAR analysis. The notion that monetary forces played an important role in bringing about the depression is well established in the narrative literature, but has more recently met some skepticism by...

This paper investigates how declines in the deposit facility rate set by the ECB affect euro area banks' incentives to hold reserves at the central bank. We find that, in the face of lower deposit rates, banks with a more interest-sensitive business model are more likely to reduce reserve...

How do households perceive the forecasting performance of the central bank? Using two novel experiments embedded in the Bundesbank's Survey on Consumer Expectations (total N = 9500), this article shows that the majority of German households underestimate the ECB's inflation forecasting accuracy....

One of the main concerns associated with central bank digital currencies (CBDC) is the disintermediating effect on the banking sector in general, and the risk of bank runs in times of crisis in particular. This paper examines the implications of an interest-bearing CBDC on banking crises in a...

This paper uses a "trendy" approach to understand UK inflation dynamics. It focuses on the time series to isolate a low-frequency and slow-moving component of inflation (the trend) from deviations around this trend. We find that this slow-moving trend explains a substantial share of UK inflation...

Most analyses of the U.S. Great Moderation have been based on VAR methods, and have consistently pointed toward good luck as the main explanation for the greater macroeconomic stability of recent years. Using data generated by a New-Keynesian model in which the only source of change is the move...

Have bank regulatory policies and unconventional monetary policies - and any possible interactions - been a factor behind the recent "deglobalisation" in cross-border bank lending? To test this hypothesis, we use bank-level data from the United Kingdom - a country at the heart of the global...