Can a negative shock to sovereign ratings invoke a vicious cycle of increasing government bond yields and further downgrades, ultimately pushing a country toward default? The narratives of public and political discussions, as well as of some widely cited papers, suggest this possibility. In this...

In diesem Artikel prognostizieren wir Insolvenzwahrscheinlichkeiten von kleinen und mittleren Unternehmen, die bislang noch keine hinreichende Beachtung gefunden haben, obwohl diese Unternehmen besonders insolvenzgefährdet sind. Die Schwierigkeit bei der Insolvenzprognose von kleinen und...

The transformation of credit scores into probabilities of default plays an important role in credit risk estimation. The linear logistic regression has developed into a standard calibration approach in the banking sector. With the advent of machine learning techniques in the discriminatory phase...

When firms are forced to publicly disclose financial information, credit rating agencies are supposed to improve their risk assessments. Theory predicts such an information quality effect but also an adverse reputational concerns effect because credit analysts may become increasingly concerned...

Approximately 51% of the adult population in Indonesia remains unbanked. They cannot fulfill formal requirements to prove their creditworthiness and are therefore not considered for services by conventional financial institutions. Addressing this barrier to their financial well- being,...