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This paper investigates the international business cycle with new sector level data on hours and output for Canada, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States from 1992 Q1 to 2011 Q3. We estimate a Bayesian dynamic common factor model on this disaggregate data to decompose...
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economic theory and argue that, while the ‘global savings glut’ may account for the cycle’s initial phase, other factors such … as the conduct of monetary policy and perceptions of declining macroeconomic risk were more important from the mid-2000s …
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