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Starting from an information process governed by a geometric Brownian motion we show that asset returns are predictable if the elasticity of the pricing kernel is not constant. Declining [Increasing] elasticity of the pricing kernel leads to mean reversion and negatively autocorrelated asset...
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Prior literature documents the usefulness of the DuPont disaggregation for predicting firms future profitability, operating income, and stock market returns. In addition, research also emphasizes the importance of earnings quality information. However, there is a lack of research examining how...
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This paper is the text of the key-note speech on macroeconomics given by Christopher Allsopp at the 75th Anniversary Symposium of the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) in Vienna on January 23rd 2002. It discusses the role of the European Central Bank, coordination issues between...
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Forecasts are useless whenever the forecast error variance fails to be smaller than the unconditional variance of the … forecast horizon h. Following Diebold and Mariano (DM, 1995) we propose a test based on the comparison of the mean …-squared error of the forecast and the sample variance. We show that the resulting test does not possess a limiting normal …
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This paper investigates the consequences of population aging and of changes in the education composition of the population for macroeconomic performance. Estimation results from a theoretically founded empirical framework show that aging as well as the education composition of the population...
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