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Bayes' statistical rule remains the status quo for modeling belief updating in both normative and descriptive models of behavior under uncertainty. Recent research has questioned the use of Bayes' rule in descriptive models of behavior, presenting evidence that people overweight 'good news'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011542204
We design and implement a novel experimental test of subjective expected utility theory and its generalizations. Our … function, but not with subjective utility theory. The theory is tested by gauging how subjects respond to price changes. A … majority of subjects respond to price changes in the direction predicted by the theory, but not to a degree that makes them …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012126236
This paper analyzes decisions on emissions of a stock pollutant under uncertainty in a two period model. Decisions are based on a weighted average of expected utility (EU) and the MaxiMin criterion. I first show that more weight on the worst case (less weight on EU) may lead to increased first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013428479
This paper introduces an axiomatic model of decision making where a person's subjective judgment as to the likelihood of different states of nature depends upon her anticipated payoff in those states. In the resulting representation the payoff consequences of an event affect beliefs as if they...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008859568
We propose a class of multiple-prior representations of preferences under ambiguity where the belief the decision-maker (DM) uses to evaluate an uncertain prospect is the outcome of a game played by two conflicting forces, Pessimism and Optimism. The model does not restrict the sign of the DM's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012064758
to misspecification, and ultimately leads to post-decision disappointment. Using statistical decision theory, we develop …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014487318
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012821448
deviation (in beliefs, utility, or perceived prices) is within e of expected utility theory. The number e can then be used as a … distance to the theory. We apply our methodology to three recent large-scale experiments. Many subjects in those experiments …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011904269
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003989037
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