Vergleichsprognose und eine Prognose mit den ifo-Erwartungen sind. Die Vorhersagen mit Hilfe der ifo-Geschäftserwartungen sind hingegen … sind, als mit der naiven Prognose oder einer Zufallsprognose. …

We analyze four economic sentiment indicators for the German economy regarding their ability to forecast economic … business expectations significantly by one month and that the latter has a onemonth lead over the PMI. Out-of-sample forecast …

Forecasts are useless whenever the forecast error variance fails to be smaller than the unconditional variance of the … forecast horizon h. Following Diebold and Mariano (DM, 1995) we propose a test based on the comparison of the mean …-squared error of the forecast and the sample variance. We show that the resulting test does not possess a limiting normal …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF … and Consensus Economics compared to their counterparts that do not. The gains in forecast accuracy from incorporating … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide …

horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation …