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We propose a novel time-varying parameters mixed-frequency dynamic factor model which is integrated into a dynamic model averaging framework for macroeconomic nowcasting. Our suggested model can efficiently deal with the nature of the real-time data flow as well as parameter uncertainty and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119825
This paper compares two single-equation approaches from the recent nowcast literature: Mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions and bridge equations. Both approach are used to nowcast a low-frequency variable such as quarterly GDP growth by higher-frequency business cycle indicators. Three...
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Current HICP measurement practices produce an upward bias of about one-ninth of a percentage point in German inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012489562
contrast to previous research, we find a prevalent and time-persistent pay-per-use bias; i.e., we find little evidence that … consumers “learn”. We propose three potential explanations for the existence and persistence of this bias. First, we suggest … to pay more. Finally, we show that the physical context, such as weather, increases the likelihood of a pay-per-use bias …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012118528
in strategic settings. This article studies the role of anchoring bias in private-value auctions. We test experimentally …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012138992
The rational expectations assumption, e.g. in life-cycle models and portfolio-choice models, prescribes agents to have model-consistent beliefs and to avoid systematic prediction errors. In reality, justi cation and identification of expectations are nontrivial. One way to solve this problem is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012139064
I derive a social planner's optimal information design in an environment with quasi-hyperbolic discounting consumers without commitment. Consumption induces instantaneous utility, but unknown delayed cost. Consumers may or may not acquire additional costless information on the cost parameter....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011902726
Recent studies investigate policies motivating consumers to make an active choice as a way to protect unsophisticated consumers. We analyze the optimal timing of such choice-enhancing policies when a firm can strategically react to them. In our model, a firm provides a contract with automatic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011762539