techniques can help to improve the nowcast of monthly German inflation in real time. Our nowcasting exercise targets three … the lowest aggregation level underlying official German inflation, such as those of butter and coffee beans. We show that … demonstrate that these scanner-based price indices improve inflation nowcasts at this very narrow level, notably already after the …

horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation …

underestimate the ECB's inflation forecasting accuracy. In particular, they believe that the ECB is overly optimistic. Communication … that challenges these perceptions improves the anchoring of inflation expectations, reduces inflation uncertainty and … discourages consumption of durable goods. Treated households also report higher trust in the ECB, perceive the ECB's inflation …

Our paper studies the relationship between money growth and consumer price inflation in the euro area using wavelet … analysis. Wavelet analysis allows to account for variations in the money growth-inflation relationship both across the … frequency spectrum and across time. We find evidence of strong comovements between money growth and inflation at low frequencies …

A major challenge for monetary policy has been predicting how exchange rate movements will impact inflation. We propose …

The failure to predict the surge in inflation in 2021 raises questions about whether we are better equipped to … anticipate a future decline in inflation. What tools do we intend to use for predicting the trajectory of inflation? Are we still … primarily relying on survey data regarding inflation expectations, and are we still employing a Calvo-type structure to model …