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Since the influential paper of Stock and Watson (2002), the dynamic factor model (DFM) has been widely used for forecasting macroeconomic key variables such as GDP. However, the DFM has some weaknesses. For nowcasting, the dynamic factor model is modified by using the mixed data sampling...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011566828
We propose a novel time-varying parameters mixed-frequency dynamic factor model which is integrated into a dynamic model averaging framework for macroeconomic nowcasting. Our suggested model can efficiently deal with the nature of the real-time data flow as well as parameter uncertainty and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119825
We develop a new Bayesian estimator that is able to deal with multivariate panel data structure in the presence of spatial correlation. The analysis of panel data introduced here allows us to analyze not only the fixed effect but also the random effect model. This work extends the previous study...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012059270
This paper describes the inference procedures required to perform Bayesian inference to some multivariate econometric models. These models have a spatial component built into commonly used multivariate models. In particular, the seemingly unrelated regression and vector autoregressive models are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012019328
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009745204
This paper compares alternative estimation procedures for multi-level factor models which imply blocks of zero restrictions on the associated matrix of factor loadings. We suggest a sequential least squares algorithm for minimizing the total sum of squared residuals and a two-step approach based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010373684
This paper considers factor estimation from heterogenous data, where some of the variables are noisy and only weakly informative for the factors. To identify the irrelevant variables, we search for zero rows in the loadings matrix of the factor model. To sharply separate these irrelevant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009674269
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000886903
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000327092
This paper compares two single-equation approaches from the recent nowcast literature: Mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions and bridge equations. Both approach are used to nowcast a low-frequency variable such as quarterly GDP growth by higher-frequency business cycle indicators. Three...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010432327