This paper presents optimal rules for monetary policy in Brazil derived from a backward looking expectation model consisting of a Keynesian IS function and an Augmented Phillips Curve (IS-AS). The IS function displays a high sensitivity of aggregate demand to the real interest rate and the...

This paper examines the potential impact of US monetary policy normalization on portfolio capital flows to Emerging Markets Economies (EME) explicitly taking into account the unconventional US monetary policy. We build an econometric model of the drivers of capital flows to EMEs and the results...

A growing literature stresses the importance of the “global financial cycle”, a common global movement in asset prices and credit conditions, for emerging market economies (EMEs). It is argued that one of the key drivers of this global cycle is monetary policy in the U.S., which is...

We analyse the relationship between global liquidity and exchange market pressure in 32 emerging market economies. Exchange market pressure is a measure of excess currency demand that is applicable across different exchange rate regimes as it accounts for changes in exchange rates, foreign...

I show that the majority of short-term nominal exchange rate fluctuations among large economies can be explained by changes in the relative stance of their monetary policies. Adapting recently developed instrumental variable techniques for shock identification, I find that monetary policy shocks...

We analyze the macroeconomic implications of a transient interest-rate peg in combination with a QE program in a non-linear medium-scale DSGE model. In this context, we re-examine what has become known as the reversal puzzle (Carlstrom, Fuerst and Paustian, 2015) and provide an analytical...

This paper studies Ramsey-optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a New Keynesian 2-country open economy framework, which is used to assess how far fiscal policy can substitute for the role of nominal exchange rates within a monetary union. Giving up exchange rate flexibility leads to welfare...