exploits the rounding patterns in individuals' responses to survey questions on inflation expectations (Binder, 2017). This … inflation expectations. …

We introduce a novel method to elicit belief distributions and apply it to elicit inflation expectations in a …-step process. First, participants specify their minimum and maximum expected inflation. They then use a graphical interface with … two sliders to adjust the mean and variance of their inflation belief distribution. We benchmark our method against the …

We use a representative online survey to investigate the inflation expectations of German consumers and the credibility … of the ECB's inflation target during the recent high inflation period. We find that credibility has trended downwards … since summer 2021, reaching an all-time low in April 2022. The high correlation between inflation expectations and the …

Central bank surveys frequently elicit households’ probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. However, most … household surveys use a response scale that is tailored towards low-inflation regimes. Using data from a randomized controlled … trial included in the Bundesbank Online Panel Households, we show (i) that keeping the original scale in high-inflation …

consumer response behavior and the corresponding inflation expectations. To this end, survey participants from a representative … asking for their subjective distribution for inflation over the next 12 months. As part of the experiment, two competing … inflation rate. In addition, I compare the responses to a question asking for consumers’ probabilistic beliefs about future …

The uncertainty of U.S. core inflation, measured by the stochastic volatility of forecast errors, has soared to a level … increase after a positive shock to core inflation uncertainty in a vector autoregression. Endogenous changes in household … inflation expectations help to understand the transmission mechanism through which an inflation uncertainty shock generates …