macroeconomic effects. This finding requires inflation expectations to adjust counterfactually large. When modeling inflation …

, premium components are less reactive to inflation shocks, while real rate responses change their sign from positive to …

Central bank surveys frequently elicit households’ probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. However, most … household surveys use a response scale that is tailored towards low-inflation regimes. Using data from a randomized controlled … trial included in the Bundesbank Online Panel Households, we show (i) that keeping the original scale in high-inflation …

exploits the rounding patterns in individuals' responses to survey questions on inflation expectations (Binder, 2017). This … inflation expectations. …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …

The uncertainty of U.S. core inflation, measured by the stochastic volatility of forecast errors, has soared to a level … increase after a positive shock to core inflation uncertainty in a vector autoregression. Endogenous changes in household … inflation expectations help to understand the transmission mechanism through which an inflation uncertainty shock generates …

We use a representative online survey to investigate the inflation expectations of German consumers and the credibility … of the ECB's inflation target during the recent high inflation period. We find that credibility has trended downwards … since summer 2021, reaching an all-time low in April 2022. The high correlation between inflation expectations and the …

analyze self-reported reasons for rounding probabilistic inflation expectations. Although rounding is correlated with …

We introduce a novel method to elicit belief distributions and apply it to elicit inflation expectations in a …-step process. First, participants specify their minimum and maximum expected inflation. They then use a graphical interface with … two sliders to adjust the mean and variance of their inflation belief distribution. We benchmark our method against the …