This paper uses VAR models to discuss two main questions: a) are the indexing mechanisms that characterised the Brazilian economy for decades a thing of the past, or could they be easily reactivated in the event of some important price shock? b) given the fiscal stance, what would be the likely...

We empirically analyse the appropriateness of indexing emerging market sovereign debt to US real interest rates. We find that policy-induced exogenous increases in US rates raise default risk in emerging market economies, as hypothesised in the theoretical literature. However, we also find...

We estimate the impact of a large anti-poverty program the Uruguayan PANES on political support for the government that implemented it. The program mainly consisted of a monthly cash transfer for a period of roughly two and half years. Using the discontinuity in program assignment based on a...