Showing 1 - 10 of 2,530
We analyze the macroeconomic implications of a transient interest-rate peg in combination with a QE program in a non-linear medium-scale DSGE model. In this context, we re-examine what has become known as the reversal puzzle (Carlstrom, Fuerst and Paustian, 2015) and provide an analytical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011671387
Recent research has found that macroeconomic survey forecasts of uncertainty exhibit several deficiencies, such as horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation uncertainty forecasts from the Bank of England, the Banco...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011962843
We build a two-country version of the model in Gali & Monacelli (2005), which extends for a small open economy the new Keynesain DSGE model used as tool for monetary policy analysis in closed economies. A distinctive feature of the model is that the terms of trade enters directly into the new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012038711
We present a sticky-price model incorporating heterogeneous firms and systematic firm-level productivity trends. Aggregating the model in closed form, we show that it delivers radically different predictions for the optimal inflation rate than canonical sticky price models featuring homogenous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011712837
We investigate German banks' exposure to interest rate risk. In finance, higher demand for a risky asset is typically associated with higher expected return. However, employing a utility function which implies both risk-averse and risk-seeking behavior depending on the level of profits, we show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011495547
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000958018
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001664563
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013415103
How do households perceive the forecasting performance of the central bank? Using two novel experiments embedded in the Bundesbank's Survey on Consumer Expectations (total N = 9500), this article shows that the majority of German households underestimate the ECB's inflation forecasting accuracy....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014495652
bank’s own interest rate expectations. From a theoretical point of view, the latter should yield the highest forecast … view, appears to be at best of minor relevance empirically. -- Forecast Accuracy ; Density Forecasts ; Projections …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009732992