Recent empirical studies suggest a downward sloping term structure of Sharpe ratios. We present a theoretical framework in continuous time that can cope with such a non-flat forward curve of risk prices. The approach departs from an arbitrage-free and incomplete market setting when different...

We evaluate the role of financial conditions as predictors of macroeconomic risk first in the quantile regression framework of Adrian et al. (2019b), which allows for non-linearities, and then in a novel linear semi-structural model as proposed by Hasenzagl et al. (2018). We distinguish between...

We address the question of whether various types of speculative investor correctly anticipate future USD/EUR currency movements or whether they tend rather to react to past exchange rate movements. Throughout the analysis, we differentiate between large and small traders, and an upper bound of...

We argue that the tax capitalization effect is a function of the attention of market participants. Market reactions can therefore be driven not only by the announcement dates of tax events but also by factors influencing the dissemination of tax information, such as deadlines and media reports....

This paper shows that, in the canonical dynamic rational expectations equilibrium model, public information about future noise trading is potentially detrimental to contemporaneous price efficiency. Our result supports concerns that social sentiment investing, sparked by growing availability of...