This paper explores how selective default expectations affect the pricing of sovereign bonds in a historical laboratory: the German default of the 1930s. We analyze yield differentials between identical government bonds traded across various creditor countries before and after bond market...

The paper analyses how the IMF brought its experience gained in emerging market sovereign debt crises in the troika’s handling of the euro crisis. We link models of multiple equilibria with the IMF's experience made in Latin American crises in the 2000s. We examine subsequent changes in the...

In this paper I use Ghosh et al. (2013) approach to assess Brazil's fiscal sustainability, fiscal fatigue, and public debt limit. Using monthly data for the last 21 years, I estimate Brazil's fiscal reaction function and an eventual fiscal fatigue effect, which is a lack of government's will (or...

The "Great Lockdown" implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe world-wide economic crisis. In euro area countries, sovereign debt-to-GDP ratios are on the rise and reductions in expected fiscal surpluses raise sustainability concerns amongst investors. This paper...